Latest update: May 13, 2019
A Monmouth University poll of likely 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, conducted May 2-7, 2019, lines up well with ratings of leading Democratic contenders on the Unit for the Study of Personality’s Presidential Electability Index (PEI), which has accurately predicted — before Super Tuesday — the outcome of every presidential election since 1996.
Below, ranked in descending order of general election electability, are the PEI ratings for the five Democratic primary contenders selected for study at the USPP this spring, namely, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, and Beto O’Rourke.
USPP Analysis: May 9, 2019
USPP Analysis: May 6, 2019
Which Democratic presidential candidate is ‘electable’ now?
The entrance of former VP Joe Biden into the 2020 field has altered the race’s dynamics in lots of ways but none more notable than this: Electability is now front and center.
Biden’s entire candidacy is based on the idea that (a) beating Donald Trump is all that matters and (b) he is by far best positioned to do so.
(Recent CNN polling suggests former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke is actually the strongest general election candidate against Trump right now. O’Rourke led Trump by 10 while Biden held a 6-point edge in a head-to-head match up with Trump.) …
In contrast to the above analysis by CNN’s “The Point,” the Unit for the Study of Personality’s Presidential Electability Index (PEI), which has accurately predicted — before Super Tuesday — the outcome of every presidential election since 1996, suggests that Joe Biden will be a stronger candidate than Beto O’Rourke in a general election matchup with Donald Trump.
The PEI heuristic model employs candidate personality traits, as publicly perceived, to predict which contender will resonate most favorably with independent and unaffiliated voters who base their voting choice primarily on a candidate’s personal qualities as publicly displayed rather than on party-political affiliation or allegiance.
Below are the PEI scores for Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Beto O’Rourke, based on studies conducted at the USPP.
The following notable individuals have filed to run for president with the Federal Election Commission or announced exploratory committees (in chronological order).
January 20, 2017 — Donald Trump (R), president of the United States, filed to run for re-election on the day of his inauguration as president.
August 10, 2017 — John Delaney (D), a former U.S. representative from Maryland, filed to run for president.
November 6, 2017 — Andrew Yang (D), an entrepreneur from New York, filed to run for president.
December 31, 2018 — Elizabeth Warren (D), a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, announced she had formed an exploratory committee to run for president.
January 11, 2019 — Tulsi Gabbard (D), a U.S. representative from Hawaii, announced she had decided to run for president.
January 12, 2019 — Julian Castro (D), a former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and San Antonio mayor, formally announced his candidacy.
January 15, 2019 — Kirsten Gillibrand (D), a U.S. senator from New York, announced she was running for president.
January 21, 2019 — Kamala Harris (D), a U.S. senator from California, announced she was running for president.
January 23, 2019 — Pete Buttigieg (D), the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, announced he was running for president.
January 28, 2019 — Marianne Williamson (D), an author and lecturer from California, announced she was running for president.
February 1, 2019 — Cory Booker (D), a U.S. senator from New Jersey, announced he was running for president.
February 10, 2019 — Amy Klobuchar (D), a U.S. senator from Minnesota, formally announced she was running for president.
February 15, 2019 — Bill Weld (R), a former governor of Massachusetts, announced that he had launched an exploratory committee to determine whether he would run in the 2020 Republican presidential primary.
February 19, 2019 — Bernie Sanders (I), a U.S. senator from Vermont who caucuses with the Democratic Party, formally announced he was running for president.
March 1, 2019 — Jay Inslee (D), the governor of Washington, announced he was running for president.
March 4, 2019 — John Hickenlooper (D), a former governor of Colorado, announced he was running for president.
March 13, 2019 — Wayne Messam (D), the mayor of Miramar, Florida, announced he had formed an exploratory committee to run for president.
March 14, 2019 — Beto O’Rourke (D), a former U.S. representative from Texas, announced he was running for president.
April 2, 2019 — Mike Gravel (D), a former U.S. senator from Alaska, announced that was running for president.
April 4, 2019 — Tim Ryan (D), a U.S. representative from Ohio, announced he was running for president.
April 8, 2019 — Eric Swalwell (D), a U.S. representative from California, announced he was running for president.
April 22, 2019 — Seth Moulton (D), a U.S. representative from Ohio, announced he was running for president.
April 25, 2019 — Joe Biden (D), a former vice president of the United States, announced he was running for president.
May 2, 2019 — Michael Bennet (D), a U.S. senator from Colorado, announced he was running for president.
May 14, 2019 — Steve Bullock (D), the governor of Montana, announced he was running for president.
May 16, 2019 — Bill de Blasio (D), the mayor of New York City, announced he was running for president.
It’s good to be Beto O’Rourke, at least according to the latest CNN/SSRS poll on the still nascent 2020 field. The Texas Democrat made the biggest gain in the field of candidates since the last poll, out in October. Meanwhile, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders reign supreme in the first and second spots, respectively.
January 29, 2019
Note: The poll number for Joe Biden in the above CNN Politics video screenshot should read 32%; the 36% figure refers to a subset of caucusgoers who prioritize a “winning candidate.”
By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director
December 15, 2018
Former Vice President Joe Biden holds the pole position in the first CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll among likely 2020 Democratic caucusgoers, with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke joining him as the only possible candidates in the field with double-digit support.
The new Iowa Poll finds 32% of likely caucusgoers saying they back Biden as their first choice, 19% Sanders, 11% O’Rourke, 8% Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 5% California Sen. Kamala Harris, with the rest of the 20-person field testing below 5% support. …
Update: March 10, 2019
December 18, 2018
According to a new Focus on Rural America poll released yesterday, former Vice President Joe Biden is the pick of the 2020 Democratic nominee bunch. He led the field of potential contenders with 30 percent, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders with 13 percent and Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who captured 11 percent.
In the very same poll, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar appears to have grabbed the attention of potential Iowa caucus goers with 10 percent of the vote, which placed her fourth in a crowded Democratic presidential field.
Overall, Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren saw their numbers slide among potential Democratic Iowa caucus-goers since September.
Biden, though, continues to dominate what figures to be a sprawling 2020 field and he also led in a Des Moines Register poll published Saturday.
Here are the top five current frontrunners for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination on PredictIt:
- Beto O’Rourke at 21 percent
- Kamala Harris at 17 percent
- Joe Biden at 17 percent
- Bernie Sanders at 15 percent
- Amy Klobuchar at 10 percent
Odds that Beto O’Rourke will be the choice of Democrats in 2020 have dropped, Kamala Harris being the new frontrunner in the PredictIt market:
- Kamala Harris at 22 percent
- Joe Biden at 18 percent
- Bernie Sanders at 15 percent
- Beto O’Rourke at 14 percent
- Amy Klobuchar at 10 percent
- Cory Booker at 8 percent
- Elizabeth Warren at 8 percent
Sen. Kamala Harris’ odds have slipped slightly in the PredictIt market after the fundraising bonanza for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) after announcing his candidacy this week:
- Bernie Sanders at 21 percent
- Kamala Harris at 21 percent
- Joe Biden at 19 percent
- Beto O’Rourke at 15 percent
- Amy Klobuchar at 9 percent
- Cory Booker at 8 percent
- Elizabeth Warren at 8 percent
Vice President Joe Biden’s odds have increased, pulling even with Sen. Bernie Sanders in the top position. Sen. Kamala Harris’ odds continue to slip, putting her on par with Rep. Beto O’Rourke in joint third place in the PredictIt market. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Cory Booker, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar have all slipped a couple of points and remain in single digits in the prediction market odds:
- Bernie Sanders at 24 percent
- Joe Biden at 24 percent
- Kamala Harris at 18 percent
- Beto O’Rourke at 18 percent
- Elizabeth Warren at 7 percent
- Cory Booker at 6 percent
- Amy Klobuchar at 6 percent
Huge early fundraising numbers have given way to free falling polling numbers which see him now sixth. A botched tax return hasn’t helped and now key campaign staff are jumping ship one month into the campaign. The darling of the Democratic field appears, at least right now, to have been ditched by voters for Mayor Pete Buttigieg. At just 8 cents a share, is now the right time to buy or sell Beto O’Rourke’s chances?
- Joe Biden at 25 percent
- Bernie Sanders at 23 percent
- Pete Buttigieg at 18 percent
- Kamala Harris at 14 percent
- Andrew Yang at 9 percent
- Elizabeth Warren at 8 percent
- Beto O’Rourke at 6 percent
- Cory Booker at 4 percent
- Amy Klobuchar at 3 percent
- Hillary Clinton at 3 percent
Morning Consult is surveying more than 5,000 registered voters across the United States daily on the 2020 presidential election. Here’s the latest survey data on the race for the Democratic nomination among Democratic primary voters nationwide, based on 14,335 interviews with registered voters, collected April 15-21 2019.
AND THEY’RE OFF
The field of 2020 presidential candidates is about to explode. Here are a few names set to come onto the scene with 2020 decisions real soon:
Amy Klobuchar: The Minnesota senator said she is “getting close to a decision” in an interview today.
Jay Inslee: The governor of Washington plans to seek the presidency — and wants to run on a climate change platform.
Julian Castro: The former San Antonio mayor plans to make a formal announcement to run on January 12.
Tom Steyer: The California billionaire plans to visit Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada (three of the four early voting states!) as he considers a presidential run.
February 7, 2019
An Emerson College poll published over the weekend found that former Vice President Joe Biden has the support of 29 percent of the planned Iowa caucusgoers surveyed.
His lead stretches double digits over second place, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), who garnered the backing of 18 percent of likely caucusgoers polled.
Following Mr. Biden and Sen. Harris in the poll is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) with 15 percent and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) with 11 percent. No other candidate received more than 6 percent of support.
The poll also found the former vice president to be the only Democratic front-runner who would defeat President Donald Trump in a head-to-head match-up among Iowa voters: 51 percent to 49 percent.
Here are the top six current frontrunners for the 2020 Democratic Iowa caucuses on PredictIt:
- Joe Biden at 22 percent
- Kamala Harris at 17 percent
- Beto O’Rourke at 13 percent
- Bernie Sanders at 13 percent
- Elizabeth Warren at 6 percent
- Cory Booker at 5 percent
Formal Democratic presidential candidate announcements
Delaney announces campaign for president, becomes first to challenge Trump (John Fritze, Baltimore Sun, July 28, 2017) — Rep. John Delaney, a former Potomac businessman who has cultivated a reputation for bipartisanship during three terms in Congress, announced Friday that he will run for the Democratic nomination for president — making him the first candidate to challenge President Donald J. Trump. The centrist Democrat, little known outside his district, will face a steep climb in building a credible national campaign. …
This 43-year-old running for president in 2020 wants to give everyone $1,000 a month in free cash (Catherine Clifford, CNBC, April 11, 2018) — Entrepreneur Andrew Yang has a big goal for a relatively unknown business person: to reach the White House. And he’s aiming to get there by selling America on the idea that all citizens, ages 18-64, should get a check for $1,000 every month, no strings attached, from the U.S. government. Yang, 43, who was born in upstate New York in 1975, will be running as a Democrat, according to his campaign website. …
Elizabeth Warren announces Iowa trip as she starts running for president in 2020 (Astead W. Herndon and Alexander Burns, New York Times, Dec. 31, 2018) — Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts Democrat and a sharp critic of big banks and unregulated capitalism, entered the 2020 race for president on Monday, becoming the first major candidate in what is likely to be a long and crowded primary marked by ideological and generational divisions in a Democratic Party determined to beat President Trump. …
Sen. Elizabeth Warren takes the stage at about 51:00
Tulsi Gabbard, representative from Hawaii, announces Democratic presidential bid (Maggie Astor, New York Times, January 11, 2019) — Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii said Friday that she would run for president, joining what is expected to be a crowded field of Democrats seeking to challenge President Trump in 2020. Ms. Gabbard announced her decision to CNN in an interview with the political commentator Van Jones that is scheduled to air on Saturday. “I have decided to run,” she said in a short clip posted Friday, “and will be making a formal announcement within the next week.”. …
Julián Castro, former Housing secretary, announces 2020 presidential run (Maggie Astor, New York Times, Jan. 12, 2019) — Julián Castro, the former housing secretary and former mayor of San Antonio, announced on Saturday that he would run for president, one of the most high-profile Latino Democrats ever to seek the party’s nomination. …
Who is Kirsten Gillibrand? (Sarah Stein Kerr, Natalie Reneau, and Drew Jordan, New York Times, Jan. 16, 2019) — The senator from New York announced on Stephen Colbert’s show Tuesday night that she’s running for president in 2020. Ms. Gillibrand is the latest candidate to join what is expected to be a crowded Democratic primary. Here’s what you need to know about her. …
“Brave doesn’t pit people against one another. Brave doesn’t put money over lives. Brave doesn’t spread hate, cloud truth, build a wall. That’s what fear does.” Toward the end of the two-and-a-half-minute-long video released March 17, 2019, Gillibrand announces she’s running for president.
Kamala Harris declares candidacy, evoking King and joining diverse field (Astead W. Herndon, New York Times, Jan. 21, 2019) — Senator Kamala Harris, the California Democrat and barrier-breaking prosecutor who became the second black woman to serve in the United States Senate, declared her candidacy for president on Monday, joining an increasingly crowded and diverse field in what promises to be a wide-open nomination process. …
Sen. Kamala Harris takes the stage at about 57:00
Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Ind., joins Democratic 2020 race (Alexander Burns, New York Times, Jan. 23, 2019) — Pete Buttigieg, the 37-year-old mayor of South Bend, Ind., announced on Wednesday that he was entering the Democratic presidential primary, embarking on a long-shot campaign that may test the appeal of a youthful, Midwestern profile over more traditional qualifications for the presidency. In an email to potential supporters, Mr. Buttigieg (he pronounces it BOOT-edge-edge) said he was forming an exploratory committee and cast himself as a candidate of the future, stressing his generational identity and calling for policies “untethered to the politics of the past” on issues like climate and economic opportunity. …
Cory Booker announces presidential bid, joining most diverse field ever (Nick Corasaniti and Shane Goldmacher, New York Times, Feb. 1, 2019) — Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, the former mayor of Newark who has projected an upbeat political presence at a deeply polarized time, entered the 2020 race for president on Friday, embarking on a campaign to become the nation’s second black president in a Democratic primary field that is the most diverse in American history. Mr. Booker announced his candidacy on the first day of Black History Month to the sound of snare drums and with a clarion call for unity. In an email to supporters, he drew on the spirit of the civil rights movement as he laid out his vision for a country that will “channel our common pain back into our common purpose.” …
“The history of our nation is defined by collective action; by interwoven destinies of slaves and abolitionists; of those born here and those who chose America as home; of those who took up arms to defend our country, and those who linked arms to challenge and change it,” Mr. Booker said in an accompanying video. …
Cory Booker: We Will Rise — “The lines that divide us are nowhere near as strong as the ties that bind us. When we join together and work together — we will rise.” (2:25)
Amy Klobuchar enters 2020 presidential race (Mitch Smith and Lisa Lerer, New York Times, Feb. 10, 2019) — Amy Klobuchar, the third-term Minnesota senator, entered the race for the Democratic presidential nomination on Sunday, hopeful that her moderate politics, Midwestern roots and carefully cultivated history of bipartisanship can appeal to a broad swath of voters in contentious times. On a snow-covered stage here along the banks of the Mississippi River, with the temperature barely above single digits, Ms. Klobuchar said that as president, she would “focus on getting things done.” …
Sen. Amy Klobuchar takes the stage at about 2:01:30
Bernie Sanders announces 2020 presidential run (Sydney Ember, New York Times, Feb. 19, 2019) — Senator Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent and 2016 Democratic primary runner-up whose populist agenda has helped push the party to the left, embarked on Tuesday on a second run for president, in a bid that will test whether he retains his anti-establishment appeal or loses ground to newer faces who have adopted many of his ideas. …
I’m running for president. I am asking you to join me today as part of an unprecedented and historic grassroots campaign that will begin with at least 1 million people from across the country. Say you’re in: https://t.co/KOTx0WZqRf pic.twitter.com/T1TLH0rm26
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) February 19, 2019
Jay Inslee, Washington governor and environmentalist, enters 2020 race (Kirk Johnson, New York Times, March 1, 2019) — Jay Inslee, the governor of Washington and former member of Congress who has made climate change and the environment his signature issues, jumped into the crowded field of 2020 Democratic contenders for president on Friday. Mr. Inslee, 68, has led the state during a powerful economic expansion since taking office as governor in 2013, especially in the Seattle area. …
“This is our moment, our climate, our mission. Together, we can defeat climate change. That’s why I’m running for president.”
John Hickenlooper says he is running in 2020, citing a ‘crisis of division’ (Julie Turkewitz, New York Times, March 4, 2019) — John Hickenlooper, the two-time Colorado governor and former brewpub owner who has overseen Colorado’s remarkable economic expansion, declared his candidacy for president on Monday. Mr. Hickenlooper, 67, a socially progressive, pro-business Democrat who has called himself an “extreme moderate,” had long said he was considering a run, and made early visits to Iowa and New Hampshire. His biggest challenge will be distinguishing himself in what is sure to be a packed field of potentially history-making candidates and deep-pocketed household names. …
Beto O’Rourke enters the 2020 presidential campaign (Matt Flegenheimer and Jonathan Martin, New York Times, March 14, 2019) — Beto O’Rourke, the 46-year-old former Texas congressman whose near-miss Senate run last year propelled him to Democratic stardom, announced on Thursday that he was running for president, betting that a broad message of national unity and generational change will lift him above a slate of committed progressives offering big-ticket policy ideas. …
I am running to serve you as the next president. The challenges we face are the greatest in living memory. No one person can meet them on their own. Only this country can do that, and only if we build a movement that includes all of us. Say you’re in: https://t.co/EKLdkVET2u pic.twitter.com/lainXyvG2n
— Beto O’Rourke (@BetoORourke) March 14, 2019
Vanity Fair cover story on Beto O’Rourke
Beto for America Launch Rally | El Paso
Rep. Beto O’Rourke takes the stage at about 34:20
Tim Ryan, Ohio congressman, enters 2020 Democratic presidential race (Maggie Astor, New York Times, April 4, 2019) — Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio, a Democrat from one of the nation’s most coveted swing states, announced his candidacy for president on Thursday, bringing the Democratic primary field to 17. Mr. Ryan, who represents a district in northeastern Ohio that includes Youngstown and part of Akron, is perhaps best known at the national level for his criticism of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and his accompanying argument that Democrats have stopped connecting with working-class voters, especially in the Midwest. . …
Eric Swalwell, California congressman, is running for president (Maggie Astor, New York Times, April 8, 2019) — Representative Eric Swalwell [age 38], a fourth-term congressman from the East Bay region of California, is running for the Democratic nomination for president, he announced Monday on “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.” … [Swalwell] has said the top focus of his campaign will be … gun control. …
Seth Moulton joins 2020 race for president (Matt Stevens, New York Times, April 22, 2019) — Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, a third-term congressman who has pushed for a “new generation of leadership” in Washington, declared his candidacy for president on Monday, becoming the 19th candidate to enter the Democratic primary field. … Mr. Moulton [age 40], a Harvard-educated Marine veteran, has also focused on recruiting veterans to run for Congress as Democrats, including a handful who campaigned and won in 2018 promising not to back [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi. …
Joe Biden announces 2020 run for president, after months of hesitation (Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin, New York Times, April 25, 2019) — Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. announced Thursday [annotated transcript and video link] that he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020, casting the election as a national emergency and asking Democrats to put the task of defeating Mr. Trump above all their other ambitions. … In doing so, Mr. Biden, 76, is making a bet of sorts that the Democratic Party’s leftward shift in recent years has been greatly overstated, and that the moral clarity of his rhetoric and his seeming strength as a general election candidate will overpower other considerations for Democratic voters who tend to prize youth, diversity and unapologetic liberalism. …
“It’s time for respected leadership on the world stage—and dignified leadership at home. It’s time for equal opportunity, equal rights, and equal justice. It’s time for an economy that rewards those who actually do the work. It’s time for a president who will stand up for all of us.” (3:29)
Michael Bennet, senator from Colorado, is running for president (Julie Turkewitz, New York Times, May 2, 2019) — Michael Bennet, the moderate, studious Democratic senator from Colorado known for his work on education and immigration reform, announced his candidacy for president on Thursday. … During his tenure, Mr. Bennet has developed a reputation as a studious senator with a habit of mulling decisions for weeks. He has bucked the more liberal base of his party on a number of big issues, including his support of the Keystone XL oil pipeline. …
“7,591 Words” (3:41)
Steve Bullock, Montana governor, is running for president (Jonathan Martin, New York Times, May 14, 2019) — Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana, who was twice elected to lead a state that President Trump carried by more than 20 points, entered the Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday, vowing to elevate the issue of campaign finance and, more implicitly, to make Democrats competitive again across the country’s interior. …
“Fair Shot” (2:44)
Mayor Bill de Blasio enters 2020 race for president (Jeffery C. Mays and William Neuman, New York Times, May 14, 2019) — Mayor Bill de Blasio …, a Democrat, announced on Thursday that he was running for president, seeking to show that his brand of urban progressive leadership can be a model for the country, and that his familiarity with President Trump, a fellow New Yorker, made him best suited to defeat the president. …
“Working People First” (3:07)
Profiles of Democratic candidates available on this site
The Personality Profile of Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden
Vice President Joe Biden’s primary personality patterns are Outgoing/congenial and Accommodating/cooperative, complemented by secondary Ambitious/confident and Dominant/asserting features. In summary, Biden may be characterized as a conciliatory extravert.
Presidential Electability Index range: 16-29
The Personality Profile of U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders
Sen. Bernie Sanders’s primary personality patterns are Dominant/asserting and Dauntless/adventurous, complemented by secondary Ambitious/confident and Contentious/resolute features. In summary, Sanders may be characterized as a deliberative nonconformist.
Presidential Electability Index range: 16-23
The Personality Profile of U.S. Senator Kamala Harris
Sen. Kamala Harris’s primary personality patterns are Outgoing/congenial, Dominant/asserting, and Ambitious/confident, complemented by secondary Accommodating/cooperative and Conscientious/respectful features. In summary, Harris may be characterized as a dominant extravert.
Presidential Electability Index range: 13-27
The Personality Profile of U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar
Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s primary personality patterns are Conscientious/dutiful and Dominant/controlling, complemented by secondary Ambitious/confident and Accommodating/cooperative features. In summary, Klobuchar may be characterized as a conscientious enforcer.
Presidential Electability Index range: 13-23
The Personality Profile of Former U.S. Representative Beto O’Rourke
Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s primary personality patterns are Outgoing/congenial and Dauntless/adventurous, complemented by secondary Accommodating/cooperative and Ambitious/confident features. In summary, O’Rourke may be characterized as an adventurous extravert
Presidential Electability Index range: 11-23
The Personality Profile of 2020 Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump
A provisional psychological assessment of President Donald Trump in office suggests that his primary personality patterns as chief executive are Ambitious/exploitative and Dominant/controlling, infused with secondary Outgoing/congenial and Dauntless/adventurous features, possibly supplemented by a modest Erratic/unstable tendency. In summary, Trump may be characterized as a highly confident, dominant extravert.
Presidential Electability Index range: 37-45
Trump’s best chance at winning would be to cease issuing statements — or tweets — about anything other than the economy. …
[S]uch an extreme approach to his public pronouncements would … give Trump the best chance top bridge the current chasm between people [56%] who think he is doing a good job on the economy (a majority of the public) and people who approve of the job he is doing overall (43% in the latest CNN-SSRS poll).
That gap seems, quite clearly, the result of the fact that people simply do not like Trump and his overall approach — bragging, bullying etc. — to the job. What better way to make people focus on the part of the Trump presidency they do like (the economy) than by downplaying the part they don’t like (Trump personally)?
To be clear: This will NEVER happen. Trump is not capable of the sort of discipline it would require. …
Trump’s biggest hurdle to a second term is his personality and behavior in office. …
Topical USPP reports
Is Donald Trump a Malignant Narcissist? (Feb. 22, 2017)
Donald Trump’s Leadership Style (Jan. 23, 2017)
Presidential Electability Index Predicted Donald Trump Win (Dec. 19, 2016)
A Question of Temperament: Donald Trump’s Fitness to Lead (Dec. 4, 2016)
“Access Hollywood” — Why Donald Trump Will Not Step Down (Oct. 8, 2016)
Donald Trump’s Temperament: Trump’s Fitness to be President (Oct. 5, 2016)
Who Will Win the Clinton-Trump Presidential Debate? (Sept. 26, 2016)
Trump’s Personality Could Win, Except … (Aug. 21, 2016)
Donald Trump’s Narcissism Is Not the Main Issue (Aug. 11, 2016)
Why Donald Trump Beats Jeb Bush: The Personal Electability Index (Aug. 23, 2015)
Selecting presidential contenders for profiling
- Kamala Harris
- Joe Biden
- Bernie Sanders
- Beto O’Rourke
- Amy Klobuchar
- Elizabeth Warren
- Cory Booker
We already have data on Joe Biden (2008) and Bernie Sanders (2016) from previous presidential campaigns, so Biden and Sanders are more or less automatic selections, considering both are among the top-5 frontrunners in current polling.
Amy Klobuchar, although at the bottom of the top 5 prospective candidates in the polls, happens to be our local senator (Minnesota), so we are already better acquainted with her than with other contenders. In the event Klobuchar does not run, Elizabeth Warren would move up on our shortlist of candidates to study.