Donald Trump 2024

The Personality Profile and Leadership Style
of 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump

Related pages

The Personality Profile of 2020 Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump” »

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump” »

Studies conducted during the 2016 presidential election cycle

The Political Personality of 2016 Republican Presidential Nominee Donald J. Trump. Working paper by Aubrey Immelman, Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics, St. John’s University/College of St. Benedict, October 2016. Abstract and link for full-text (31 pages; PDF) download at Digital Commons:

Executive summary: Donald Trump’s predominant personality patterns are Ambitious/exploitative (a measure of narcissism) and Outgoing/impulsive, infused with secondary features of the Dominant/controlling pattern and supplemented by a Dauntless/adventurous tendency. This particular personality composite can be labeled amorous narcissism or, in political terms, high-dominance charismatic — charismatic by virtue of the highly elevated primary Ambitious–Outgoing amalgam.

The Leadership Style of U.S. President Donald J. Trump. Working paper by Aubrey Immelman, Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics, St. John’s University/College of St. Benedict, January 2017. Abstract and link for full-text (14 pages; PDF) download at Digital Commons:

Executive summary: Donald Trump’s core personality-based leadership traits may be summarized as follows: an active-positive presidential character with mobilization — the ability to arouse, engage, and direct the public — as his key leadership asset; an overall leadership style that is distinctively charismatic and nondeliberative; and a high-dominance, extraverted, influential foreign policy orientation.

Research conducted during the Trump presidency

The Personality Profile and Leadership Style of U.S. President Donald J. Trump in Office. Paper presented at the 43rd Annual Scientific Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology, Berlin, Germany, July 14-16, 2020. Abstract and link for full-text (71 pages; PDF) download at Digital Commons:

Annie Griebie briefly explains the conceptual framework, methodology, and results of her assessment of President Donald Trump’s personality as revealed in office. (9:39)

Aubrey Immelman presents his paper, with Anne Marie Griebie, on “The Personality Profile and Leadership Style of U.S. President Donald J. Trump in Office” at the 43rd Annual Scientific Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology, July 16, 2020. The meeting, originally scheduled for Berlin, Germany, was conducted in virtual format due to the global COVID-19 pandemic.

The Personality Profile and Leadership Style of U.S. President Donald J. Trump in Office

By Aubrey Immelman and Anne Marie Griebie

July 2020

Summary and Formulation

This paper presents the results of an indirect assessment, from the conceptual perspective of personologist Theodore Millon, of the personality of Donald J. Trump, 45th president of the United States, based solely on personality dynamics revealed by his political behavior in office.

Psychodiagnostically relevant data were collected from biographical sources and media reports of Trump’s postinaugural political behavior from January 20, 2017 until July 2020 and synthesized into a personality profile using the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria (MIDC), which yields 34 normal and maladaptive personality classifications congruent with DSM-III-R, DSM-IV, and DSM-5.

The personality profile yielded by the MIDC was analyzed in accordance with interpretive guidelines provided in the MIDC and Millon Index of Personality Styles manuals. Trump’s primary personality patterns were found to be Ambitious/self-serving (bordering on exploitative), Dominant/controlling (bordering on aggressive), and Outgoing/gregarious (bordering on impulsive), infused with secondary features of the Dauntless/dissenting pattern. There is suggestive, equivocal evidence of incipient Distrusting/suspicious and Erratic/unstable tendencies emerging during Trump’s time in office.

Ambitious individuals are bold, competitive, and self-assured; they easily assume leadership roles, expect others to recognize their special qualities, and often act as though entitled. Dominant individuals enjoy the power to direct others and to evoke obedience and respect; they are tough and unsentimental and often make effective leaders. Outgoing individuals are dramatic attention‑getters who thrive on being the center of social events, go out of their way to be popular with others, have confidence in their social abilities, tend to be impulsive and undisciplined, and become easily bored — especially when faced with repetitive or mundane tasks. Dauntless individuals tend to flout tradition, dislike following routine, sometimes act impulsively and irresponsibly, and are inclined to elaborate on or shade the truth and skirt the law.

As predicted on the basis of his pre-inaugural personality profile, Trump’s executive leadership style in office was bold, competitive, and self-assured (i.e., ambitious); tough and directive (i.e., dominant); impulsive and undisciplined (i.e., outgoing); and disruptively tradition-defying, with an inclination to shade the truth and skirt the law (i.e., dauntless).

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Presidential Electability Index range: 64-84 (dysfunctionality adjusted = 45)

Presidential Electability Index (political impact) score

Donald Trump scores very high on the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria-based Presidential Electability Index (PEI), which employs publicly perceived candidate personality traits as the predictor variable and has accurately predicted — before Super Tuesday — the outcome of every presidential election from 1996 to 2016.

Donald Trump
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 64–84

PEI = 64–84 (74 ±10); dysfunctionality adjusted = 45*

            Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8
Lower limit: 22 14 22 20 0 0 2 0 0 0
Upper limit: 28 22 30 26 1 0 9 3 0 1
     Adjusted: 15 14 15 15 0 0 2 0 0 0

Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 20] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 22] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 22] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 0] = 64 – 0 = 64

Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 26] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 30] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 28] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 – 3) = 0] = 84 – 0 = 84

* Dysfunctionality adjusted PEI = [Extraversion (scale 3) = (20 – 5) = 15] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = (22 – 7) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = (22 – 7) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 0] = 45 – 0 = 45

Projecting the Winner of the 2024 Presidential Election: The Presidential Electability Index
August 12, 2024

Donald Trump
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 64-84 (74 ±10); dysfunctionality adjusted 45
Joe Biden
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 21-33 (27 ±6)

2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Contest

Early reporting on the state of the race

Who Will Win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination?

January 14, 2021

Trump drops 12 points: According to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll released on Wednesday [Jan. 13, 2021], 42 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Trump in the 2024 presidential primaries in a poll conducted Jan. 8-11, after the attack on the Capitol. That percentage is down from 54 percent of Republicans who said they would vote for Trump when the question was asked Nov. 21-23. …

Despite the drop in numbers, Trump is still ahead of other potential challengers. The poll found 16 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Vice President Mike Pence; 6 percent for Donald Trump, Jr.; 6 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX); 5 percent for Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and American ambassador to the U.N.; and 6 percent said they would vote for Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT). …

Opening yesterday, the [PredictIt] market tracking who will lead the Grand Old Party into the next presidential election showed Trump as the top contract at 19¢. He was followed by Haley at 16¢, Pence at 13¢ and then two senators at 8¢.

Running for Second
By David Leonhardt and Ian Prasad Philbrick

August 24, 2023


The eight Republican presidential candidates who took the stage last night had a lot going for them. … In a different year, the race among them might be a fascinating one.

But the 2024 Republican campaign is shaping up to be unlike any in memory.

Donald Trump remains so popular among Republican primary voters that there is no obvious path for any of the other candidates to displace him. He leads among virtually every Republican subgroup: both men and women; those with household incomes above and below $100,000; evangelicals and non-evangelicals; moderate and conservative Republicans; Fox News devotees and people who get their news elsewhere; and in each region of the country, as well as in rural areas, suburbs and cities. …

New York Times/Siena Poll, July 23-27, 2023

For more than eight years now, since he declared his 2016 candidacy in New York, Trump has dominated the Republican Party, notes our colleague Shane Goldmacher, who covers politics. Many Republicans — a long and varied list starting with Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz in 2016 — have tried to displace Trump, without success. Neither Trump’s loss to Joe Biden in 2020 nor the poor performance of his preferred candidates in the 2022 midterms nor the four recent indictments have altered the situation. …

Who Would Donald Trump Choose As His Running Mate?

By Michael C. Bender and Rebecca Lieberman
The New York Times
February 17, 2024


Donald J. Trump’s victories in the first Republican presidential contests and his lead in the polls have left much of the political world viewing his nomination as all but inevitable.

They have also inspired a fair amount of speculation about who might wind up on a 2024 ticket beside him, with possible contenders like Tim Scott, Elise Stefanik, J.D. Vance and Kristi Noem campaigning on his behalf at rallies leading up to the early nominating contests. …

Trump has weighed the pros and cons of some contenders with friends and advisers. His team has discussed possible parameters, like whether a woman on the ticket would help win back suburban women who abandoned him in the last election, or if choosing a person of color would be a smart choice, given the gains he saw in 2020 with Black and Hispanic men.

Either way, Mar-a-Lago courtiers generally agree that any résumé for the No. 2 spot on the ticket must include some Trump-specific requirements that defy demographics: absolute loyalty to the Trump brand, a willingness to filter every decision and public comment through a subservient lens, and the know-it-when-you-see-it “central casting” look the former president prizes.

Here’s a look at some possible contenders. …

Biden Performs Better Against Trump than Harris, Newsom

Photo collage added; not part of article

By Jared Gans
The Hill
February 16, 2024


President Biden performs best among several high-profile Democrats in hypothetical general election match-ups against former President Trump, according to a new poll.

The Emerson College survey released Friday [Feb. 16, 2024] found Biden trailing Trump 45 percent to 44 percent — with the 1 point difference within the margin of error — in a hypothetical rematch, with 11 percent undecided.

Polling has shown Biden with an approval rating around 40 percent and most Americans wanting candidates other than him and Trump this November, but the Emerson survey found he was more competitive against the former president than a few other top Democrats.

In a hypothetical match-up, Trump leads Vice President Harris 46 percent to 43 percent and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) 46 percent to 36 percent. He also leads Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) 45 percent to 33 percent.

Newsom and Whitmer have increasingly gained national attention as prominent Democrats, and pundits have included them as possible future presidential candidates. …

Pollsters for Emerson found a higher percentage of voters who said they were undecided in the match-ups with Newsom and Whitmer than with Biden or Harris. Only 11 percent were undecided in the match-up with Harris, while 18 percent were undecided with Newsom and 22 percent were undecided with Whitmer. …

The poll was conducted from Feb. 13-14 [2024] among 1,225 registered voters. Its margin of error was 2.7 points.

Fox News Poll: Trump Has Edge over Biden in Potential 2024 Rematch

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By Victoria Balara
Fox News
March 3, 2024


With eight months until Election Day, former President Trump carries voters who say either the economy or immigration is their priority voting issue, and this edge on the top two issues gives the Republican frontrunner a 2-point advantage over current President Biden [49% to Biden’s 47%] in a hypothetical general election matchup. The poll also shows Nikki Haley, Trump’s last-standing Republican primary challenger, with an 8-point lead over Biden [50% to Biden’s 42%]. … Among independents, she’s ahead of Biden by 15 points compared to Biden’s 8-point advantage against Trump.

In a potential 5-way race, Trump (41%) remains ahead of Biden (38%), with both losing support to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (13%), Cornel West (3%), and Jill Stein (2%).

The 5-way is less favorable for Haley, as she loses her lead to Biden and barely edges out Kennedy: 35% Biden, 28% Haley, 24% Kennedy, 5% West, and 2% Stein.

Haley’s woes come from a split among Trump supporters and MAGA Republicans. Only 45% of Trump supporters back Haley, while 38% back Kennedy. It’s a similar story among MAGA supporters, as 49% of them go for Haley and 37% for Kennedy. …

Conducted Feb. 25-28, 2024, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,262 registered voters (RV) nationwide randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (134) and cellphones (797) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (331). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 2.5 percentage points.


If Donald Trump is the nominee, we will lose.
— Nikki Haley campaign stump speech

On the campaign trail, Nikki Haley has repeatedly asserted that Donald Trump cannot beat Joe Biden in the presidential election and that she’s the better candidate to defeat Biden in November, citing poll numbers that show her outpolling Trump in a head-to-head matchup against Biden.

Haley’s argument is contestable on two counts:

First, Haley’s argument assumes that she can drive the same turnout of Trump’s base as Trump himself, which is doubtful.

Second, Haley and Biden will not be the only candidates on the presidential ballot and, as the Fox News poll indicates, Trump is the stronger candidate in something other than a head-to-head matchup against Biden. Specifically, in a prospective five-way race, Trump loses just one percentage point compared with a two-way race (41% down to 40%) and beats Biden 40% to 38%, whereas Haley loses 22 points (50% down to 28%), narrowly edging out Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (24%) and losing the election with just 28% to Biden’s 38%.

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