Projecting the Winner of the 2024 Presidential Election
The Presidential Electability Index
Presidential electability index (political impact) scores
for selected 2024 U.S. presidential candidates
August 14, 2023
The Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria-based Presidential Electability Index (PEI), which employs publicly perceived candidate personality traits as the predictor variable has accurately predicted — before Super Tuesday — the outcome of every presidential election from 1996 to 2016. The 2020 projection was withdrawn prior to the election because of the unusual, pandemic-related circumstances (including unconventional voting procedures) under which the election was conducted.
The PEI projects that Donald Trump or Chris Christie, but not Ron DeSantis or Mike Pence, would defeat incumbent president Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election. No data were collected for other Republican contenders.
March 5, 2024 update
The Department of Justice is “challenging efforts by states and jurisdictions to implement discriminatory, burdensome, and unnecessary restrictions on access to the ballot, including those related to mail-in voting, the use of drop boxes, and voter ID requirements.” (U.S. Attorney General Merrick B. Garland, ‘Bloody Sunday’ remarks delivered at Tabernacle Baptist Church, Selma, Alabama, March 3, 2024)
Caveat: The loosening of voting restrictions — particularly mail-in voting (and associated ‘ballot harvesting’) — violates the assumptions of the PEI heuristic model and decreases its reliability and predictive power.
Donald Trump
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 64–84
PEI = 64–84 (74 ±10); dysfunctionality adjusted = 45*
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower limit: | 22 | 14 | 22 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Upper limit: | 28 | 22 | 30 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Adjusted: | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 20] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 22] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 22] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 0] = 64 – 0 = 64
Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 26] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 30] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 28] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 – 3) = 0] = 84 – 0 = 84
* Dysfunctionality adjusted PEI = [Extraversion (scale 3) = (20 – 5) = 15] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = (22 – 7) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = (22 – 7) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 0] = 45 – 0 = 45
Chris Christie
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 25–47
PEI = 25–47 (36 ±11)
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower limit: | 14 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Upper limit: | 24 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 4] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 7] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 14] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 25 – 0 = 25
Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 11] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 12] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 24] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 47 – 0 = 47
Joe Biden
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 21–33
PEI = 21–33 (27 ±6)
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower limit: | 3 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Upper limit: | 6 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 13] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 3] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 21 – 0 = 21
Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 19] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 8] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 6] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (4 – 4) = 0] = 33 – 0 = 33
Ron DeSantis
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 13–21
PEI = 13–21 (17 ±4)
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower limit: | 13 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| Upper limit: | 19 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 13 |
Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 0] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 9] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 13] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 9] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 – 3) = 0] = 22 – 9 = 13
Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 16] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 19] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 13] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (8 – 4) = 4] = 38 – 17 = 21
Mike Pence
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 5–5
PEI = 5–5
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower limit: | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 0 |
| Upper limit: | 11 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 2 |
Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 5] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (11 – 4) = 7] = 12 – 7 = 5
Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 4] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 9] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 2] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (21 – 4) = 17] = 24 – 19 = 5
Trump Crushing DeSantis and G.O.P. Rivals, Times/Siena Poll Finds
By Shane Goldmacher
The New York Times
July 31, 2023
Excerpt
Former President Donald J. Trump is dominating his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, leading his nearest challenger, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, by a landslide 37 percentage points nationally among the likely Republican primary electorate, according to the first New York Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 campaign.
Mr. Trump held decisive advantages across almost every demographic group and region and in every ideological wing of the party, the survey found, as Republican voters waved away concerns about his escalating legal jeopardy. He led by wide margins among men and women, younger and older voters, moderates and conservatives, those who went to college and those who didn’t, and in cities, suburbs and rural areas.
The poll shows that some of Mr. DeSantis’s central campaign arguments — that he is more electable than Mr. Trump, and that he would govern more effectively — have so far failed to break through. Even Republicans motivated by the type of issues that have fueled Mr. DeSantis’s rise, such as fighting “radical woke ideology,” favored the former president.
Overall, Mr. Trump led Mr. DeSantis 54 percent to 17 percent. No other candidate topped 3 percent support in the poll. […]
Full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/31/us/politics/2024-poll-nyt-siena-trump-republicans.html
Biden Shores Up Democratic Support, but Faces Tight Race Against Trump
President Biden and Donald Trump. (Photo credits: Desiree Rios for The New York Times; Saul Martinez for The New York Times)
By Reid J. Epstein, Ruth Igielnik, and Camille Baker
The New York Times
August 1, 2023
Excerpts
President Biden is heading into the 2024 presidential contest on firmer footing than a year ago, with his approval rating inching upward and once-doubtful Democrats falling into line behind his re-election bid, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. […]
Perhaps most worryingly for Democrats, the poll found Mr. Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald J. Trump, who held a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters even as he faces two criminal indictments and more potential charges on the horizon. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, according to the poll. […]
To borrow an old political cliché, the poll shows that Mr. Biden’s support among Democrats is a mile wide and an inch deep. About 30 percent of voters who said they planned to vote for Mr. Biden in November 2024 said they hoped Democrats would nominate someone else. […]
Full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/01/us/politics/biden-trump-poll.html
CNN Poll: Biden Faces Negative Job Ratings and Concerns about His Age as He Gears Up for 2024
CNN poll conducted by SSRS, August 25-31, 2023. (Graphic: DailyMail.com)
PredictIt: Who Will Win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
Who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? (PredictIt Daily Market, Sept. 22, 2023)
How the 2024 Race Is Shaping Up for Trump and Biden in 7 Key States
By Gregory Korte
Bloomberg News
October 19, 2023
Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.
By Shane Goldmacher
The New York Times
November 5, 2023
Biden Trails Trump in Each of Seven Battleground States
By Josh Wingrove and Gregory Korte
Bloomberg News
January 31, 2024
Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds
By Shane Goldmacher
The New York Times
March 2, 2023
Excerpts
President Biden is struggling to overcome doubts about his leadership inside his own party and broad dissatisfaction over the nation’s direction, leaving him trailing behind Donald J. Trump just as their general-election contest is about to begin, a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found.
With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters.
Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction. More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition. And the share of voters who strongly disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.
The poll offers an array of warning signs for the president about weaknesses within the Democratic coalition, including among women, Black and Latino voters. So far, it is Mr. Trump who has better unified his party, even amid an ongoing primary contest. …
Mr. Trump is winning 97 percent of those who say they voted for him four years ago, and virtually none of his past supporters said they are casting a ballot for Mr. Biden. In contrast, Mr. Biden is winning only 83 percent of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they now back Mr. Trump. …
Mr. Trump’s policies were generally viewed far more favorably by voters than Mr. Biden’s. A full 40 percent of voters said Mr. Trump’s policies had helped them personally, compared to only 18 percent who said the same of Mr. Biden’s. …
Overall, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were dead even among prized independent voters, drawing 42 percent each.
But over and over, the Times/Siena poll revealed how Mr. Trump has cut into more traditional Democratic constituencies while holding his ground among Republican groups. The gender gap, for instance, is no longer benefiting Democrats. Women, who strongly favored Mr. Biden four years ago, are now equally split, while men gave Mr. Trump a nine-point edge. The poll showed Mr. Trump edging out Mr. Biden among Latinos, and Mr. Biden’s share of the Black vote is shrinking, too. …
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 980 registered voters nationwide was conducted on cellular and landline telephones, using live interviewers, from Feb. 25 to 28, 2024. The margin of sampling error for the presidential ballot choice question is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points among registered voters.
Full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/us/politics/biden-trump-times-siena-poll.html
The Election is Set … The primaries are effectively over — and the general election begins
By Nate Cohn
The New York Times
March 6, 2023
Excerpts
On paper, Biden ought to be the favorite. He’s an incumbent president with a strong economy and an opponent facing trial for multiple alleged crimes.
Yet according to the polls, Trump begins the general election campaign in the lead. Over the last four months, he has led nearly every poll in Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, along with the states he carried in 2020 — enough to give him 283 electoral votes and the presidency. …
In the end, Biden might well prevail by capitalizing on issues like abortion and democracy. Historically, early polls are not especially predictive of a final outcome. Many voters aren’t yet paying close attention, and there will be every opportunity for the Biden campaign to refocus the electorate on more favorable issues once the general election campaign gets underway. …
Full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/briefing/super-tuesday-2024-election-haley-trump-biden.html
Many Democrats Are Worried Trump Will Beat Biden. This One Isn’t.
Simon Rosenberg has spent the past two years telling Democrats they need to calm down. His Biden-will-win prediction is his next big test.
By Adam Nagourney
The New York Times
April 3, 2023
Excerpts
Simon Rosenberg was right about the congressional elections of 2022. All the conventional wisdom — the polls, the punditry, the fretting by fellow Democrats — revolved around the expectation of a big red wave and a Democratic wipeout.
He disagreed. Democrats would surprise everyone, he said again and again: There would be no red wave. He was correct, of course, as he is quick to remind anyone listening.
These days, Mr. Rosenberg, 60, a Democratic strategist and consultant … is again pushing back against the polls and punditry and the Democratic doom and gloom. This time, he is predicting that President Biden will defeat Donald J. Trump in November. …
Full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/03/us/politics/simon-rosenberg-trump-biden.html
Joe Biden » http://personality-politics.org/joe-biden-2024
Chris Christie » http://personality-politics.org/chris-christie-2024
Ron DeSantis » http://personality-politics.org/ron-desantis
Mike Pence » http://personality-politics.org/mike-pence-2024
Donald Trump » http://personality-politics.org/donald-trump-2024
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