2024 Presidential Candidates

Projecting the Winner of the 2024 Presidential Election

The Presidential Electability Index

Presidential electability index (political impact) scores
for selected 2024 U.S. presidential candidates

August 14, 2023

The Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria-based Presidential Electability Index (PEI), which employs publicly perceived candidate personality traits as the predictor variable has accurately predicted — before Super Tuesday — the outcome of every presidential election from 1996 to 2016. The 2020 projection was withdrawn prior to the election because of the unusual, pandemic-related circumstances (including unconventional voting procedures) under which the election was conducted.

Donald Trump
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 64–84

PEI = 64–84 (74 ±10); dysfunctionality adjusted = 45*

            Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8
Lower limit: 22 14 22 20 0 0 2 0 0 0
Upper limit: 28 22 30 26 1 0 9 3 0 1
     Adjusted: 15 14 15 15 0 0 2 0 0 0

Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 20] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 22] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 22] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 0] = 64 – 0 = 64

Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 26] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 30] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 28] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 – 3) = 0] = 84 – 0 = 84

* Dysfunctionality adjusted PEI = [Extraversion (scale 3) = (20 – 5) = 15] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = (22 – 7) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = (22 – 7) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 0] = 45 – 0 = 45


Chris Christie
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 25–47

PEI = 25–47 (36 ±11)

            Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8
Lower limit: 14 6 7 4 0 0 4 2 0 0
Upper limit: 24 12 12 11 0 0 10 2 0 0

Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 4] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 7] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 14] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 25 – 0 = 25

Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 11] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 12] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 24] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 47 – 0 = 47


Joe Biden
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 21–33

PEI = 21–33 (27 ±6)

            Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8
Lower limit: 3 1 5 13 9 0 0 2 0 0
Upper limit: 6 4 8 19 11 1 0 4 0 0

Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 13] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 3] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 21 – 0 = 21

Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 19] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 8] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 6] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (4 – 4) = 0] = 33 – 0 = 33


Ron DeSantis
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 13–21

PEI = 13–21 (17 ±4)

            Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8
Lower limit: 13 1 9 0 1 0 6 3 1 9
Upper limit: 19 9 16 3 3 5 9 8 10 13

Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 0] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 9] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 13] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 9] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 – 3) = 0] = 22 – 9 = 13

Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 16] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 19] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 13] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (8 – 4) = 4] = 38 – 17 = 21


Mike Pence
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 5–5

PEI = 5–5

            Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8
Lower limit: 5 1 4 3 4 2 1 11 2 0
Upper limit: 11 2 9 4 9 4 3 21 2 2

Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 5] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (11 – 4) = 7] = 12 – 7 = 5

Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 4] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 9] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 2] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (21 – 4) = 17] = 24 – 19 = 5


Trump Crushing DeSantis and G.O.P. Rivals, Times/Siena Poll Finds


By Shane Goldmacher
The New York Times
July 31, 2023

Excerpt

Former President Donald J. Trump is dominating his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, leading his nearest challenger, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, by a landslide 37 percentage points nationally among the likely Republican primary electorate, according to the first New York Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 campaign.

Mr. Trump held decisive advantages across almost every demographic group and region and in every ideological wing of the party, the survey found, as Republican voters waved away concerns about his escalating legal jeopardy. He led by wide margins among men and women, younger and older voters, moderates and conservatives, those who went to college and those who didn’t, and in cities, suburbs and rural areas.

The poll shows that some of Mr. DeSantis’s central campaign arguments — that he is more electable than Mr. Trump, and that he would govern more effectively — have so far failed to break through. Even Republicans motivated by the type of issues that have fueled Mr. DeSantis’s rise, such as fighting “radical woke ideology,” favored the former president.

Overall, Mr. Trump led Mr. DeSantis 54 percent to 17 percent. No other candidate topped 3 percent support in the poll. […]

Full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/31/us/politics/2024-poll-nyt-siena-trump-republicans.html


Biden Shores Up Democratic Support, but Faces Tight Race Against Trump


President Biden and Donald Trump. (Photo credits: Desiree Rios for The New York Times; Saul Martinez for The New York Times)

By Reid J. Epstein, Ruth Igielnik, and Camille Baker
The New York Times
August 1, 2023

Excerpts

President Biden is heading into the 2024 presidential contest on firmer footing than a year ago, with his approval rating inching upward and once-doubtful Democrats falling into line behind his re-election bid, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. […]

Perhaps most worryingly for Democrats, the poll found Mr. Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald J. Trump, who held a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters even as he faces two criminal indictments and more potential charges on the horizon. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, according to the poll. […]

To borrow an old political cliché, the poll shows that Mr. Biden’s support among Democrats is a mile wide and an inch deep. About 30 percent of voters who said they planned to vote for Mr. Biden in November 2024 said they hoped Democrats would nominate someone else. […]

Full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/01/us/politics/biden-trump-poll.html


CNN Poll: Biden Faces Negative Job Ratings and Concerns about His Age as He Gears Up for 2024


CNN poll conducted by SSRS, August 25-31, 2023. (Graphic: DailyMail.com)



PredictIt: Who Will Win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?

Who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? (PredictIt Daily Market, Sept. 22, 2023)


How the 2024 Race Is Shaping Up for Trump and Biden in 7 Key States

By Gregory Korte
Bloomberg News
October 19, 2023


Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds

Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.
By Shane Goldmacher
The New York Times
November 5, 2023


Biden Trails Trump in Each of Seven Battleground States

By Josh Wingrove and Gregory Korte
Bloomberg News
January 31, 2024


2024 Presidential Candidates

Joe Biden » http://personality-politics.org/joe-biden-2024

Chris Christie » http://personality-politics.org/chris-christie-2024

Ron DeSantis » http://personality-politics.org/ron-desantis

Mike Pence » http://personality-politics.org/mike-pence-2024

Donald Trump » http://personality-politics.org/donald-trump-2024