Projecting the Winner of the 2024 Presidential Election
The Presidential Electability Index
Presidential electability index (political impact) scores
for selected 2024 U.S. presidential candidates
August 14, 2023
The Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria-based Presidential Electability Index (PEI), which employs publicly perceived candidate personality traits as the predictor variable has accurately predicted — before Super Tuesday — the outcome of every presidential election from 1996 to 2016. The 2020 projection was withdrawn prior to the election because of the unusual, pandemic-related circumstances (including unconventional voting procedures) under which the election was conducted.
The PEI projects that Donald Trump or Chris Christie, but not Ron DeSantis or Mike Pence, would defeat incumbent president Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election. No data were collected for other Republican contenders.
August 2024 addendum: The PEI also projects that Donald Trump will defeat Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
Scroll down for 2024 election-outcome projections
March 5, 2024 update
The Department of Justice is “challenging efforts by states and jurisdictions to implement discriminatory, burdensome, and unnecessary restrictions on access to the ballot, including those related to mail-in voting, the use of drop boxes, and voter ID requirements.” (U.S. Attorney General Merrick B. Garland, ‘Bloody Sunday’ remarks delivered at Tabernacle Baptist Church, Selma, Alabama, March 3, 2024)
Caveat: The loosening of voting restrictions — particularly mail-in voting (and associated ‘ballot harvesting’) — violates the assumptions of the PEI heuristic model and decreases its reliability and predictive power.
August 12, 2024 update
“His Own Worst Enemy” : Trump Running Against Both Harris and Himself
In an August 11, 2016 blog post titled “Donald Trump’s narcissism is not the main issue,” I identified Donald Trump’s impulsive, histrionic tendency and low conscientiousness — not narcissism — as his major obstacle to electoral success. Indeed, I incorporated a correction factor for “dysfunctionality” in the Presidential Electability Index election-outcome prediction model.
It now seems that the correction factor may be insufficient to compensate for Trump’s current self-immolation as a presidential candidate.
Trump’s lack of discipline — for example, questioning Kamala Harris’s ethnic identity, hurling personal insults against her instead of focusing on his own policy proposals and record of accomplishment, and publicly airing his personal vendetta against Republican governor Brian Kemp of Georgia — combine to create a public perception of Trump as a low-IQ candidate with even lower EQ (emotional quotient).
If Trump does not make a major course correction — and soon — from his unfocused, meandering, sometimes incoherent rhetoric at rallies and press conferences, these factors will outweigh the predictive utility of of the PEI and Trump will lose the election in November.
Changing course will be a difficult challenge for Trump. The characteristic cognitive style of individuals with Trump’s histrionic tendency is flightiness; they avoid introspective thought, are overly attentive to fleeting external events (the proverbial “shiny objects”), speak in impressionistic generalities (rather than being laser-focused on the issues), and integrate experiences poorly, resulting in scattered learning and poor judgment. To complicate the problem, Trump, due to his elevated level of narcissism, is unlikely to heed good counsel from his advisors — meaning he will likely continue to dig himself deeper and deeper into a hole.
August 14, 2024 update
Trump Can’t Help Himself
Article excerpts:
Republicans issue warning to Trump over strategy after X interview (Sarah Ewall-Wice, Daily Mail, Aug. 13, 2024) — Republican strategists have a stark warning for Donald Trump and his campaign regarding effectively attacking his political foe Kamala Harris. … He recently caused controversy when claiming he ‘didn’t know’ that Harris is black and has also focused on comparing her crowd sizes with his own at campaign rallies. His top allies have told him he needs to focus on Kamala Harris’ record as vice president, and ignore the other nonsense, in order to bring her down in November. … GOP consultant Mike Madrid suggested Trump is running out of time to turn things around. …
Nikki Haley has blunt message for Trump, GOP as Kamala Harris gains momentum: ‘Quit whining’ (Ashley Carnahan, Fox News, Aug. 13, 2024) — Former GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley.… told Fox News chief political anchor Bret Baier on “Special Report” Republicans and former President Trump should focus on policy and messaging instead of crowd sizes at rallies, Harris’ race, or attacks on her intellect. … Haley told Baier that Republicans should focus on courting suburban women, independents, moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats. … Watch the video.
August 16, 2024 update
Trump “Shoots” Himself
By James LaPorta
CBS News
August 16, 2024
Excerpt:
Speaking from his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, during an event on fighting antisemitism, Trump praised the late Las Vegas casino magnate as “one of the greatest businessmen in the world,” before addressing Sheldon Adelson’s widow [Dr. Miriam Adelson] to make a comparison between the Medal of Honor and the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor, which is typically given for significant achievements in the arts, public service and other fields.
“I watched Sheldon sitting so proud in the White House when we gave Miriam the Presidential Medal of Freedom. That’s the highest award you can get as a civilian. It’s the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor, but civilian version,” said Trump as he spoke from the podium in front of multiple American and Israeli flags.
He added, “It’s actually much better because everyone gets the Congressional Medal of Honor, they’re soldiers. They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they are dead. She gets it and she’s a healthy, beautiful woman. And they’re rated equal, but she got the Presidential Medal of Freedom.” …
August 18, 2024 update
Trump Able to Write Better Political “Death Warrant” Than Best Dem Strategist
Katie Herchenroeder
August 18, 2024
Vanity Fair
Excerpt:
You don’t mind if I go off teleprompter for a second, do you?” Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump asked his Pennsylvania crowd at a campaign rally on Saturday—less than four minutes into his speech.
What followed was a long-winded, meandering address that featured Trump insisting that he is more attractive than his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. …
Trump then goes after a “Ronald Reagan speechwriter,” presumptively Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan. Noonan has written about Harris’s appearance in recent weeks, saying that, “Her beauty, plus the social warmth that all who have known her over the years speak of, combines to produce: radiance.”
“She said one thing that got me,” Trump began, seemingly talking about Noonan’s columns. “She said Kamala has one big advantage, she’s a very beautiful woman. She’s a beautiful woman.” The crowd boos.
“But I say that I’m much better looking than her. Much better. Much better. I’m a better looking person than Kamala,” Trump continued, to cheers. …
September 10, 2024 update
Debate Note: Trump’s Ego Lets Harris Get Under His Skin
An undisciplined former president Donald Trump repeatedly took Vice President Kamala Harris’s bait in their first debate of the 2024 election cycle, hosted by ABC News. The most self-defeating instance of this persistent personal weakness on the part of Trump occurred when moderator David Muir handed Trump an opening to explain why the border bill supported by Harris would codify weaknesses in Biden administration immigration policies and tie a future President Trump’s hands in pursuing his personal policy preferences.
Trump never took this opportunity to counterpunch, instead using his speaking turn to boast about his campaign rallies and then made matters worse by handing political ammunition to critics characterizing him as “unhinged” — chasing down a rabbit hole with a tale of pet-eating migrants.
Debate excerpt:
DAVID MUIR: We’re going to turn now to immigration and border security. […]
VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS: […] And let me say that the United States Congress, including some of the most conservative members of the United States Senate, came up with a border security bill which I supported. […] Donald Trump got on the phone, called up some folks in Congress, and said kill the bill. And you know why? Because he preferred to run on a problem instead of fixing a problem. […] And I’m going to actually do something really unusual and I’m going to invite you to attend one of Donald Trump’s rallies because it’s a really interesting thing to watch. You will see during the course of his rallies he talks about fictional characters like Hannibal Lecter. He will talk about windmills cause cancer. And what you will also notice is that people start leaving his rallies early out of exhaustion and boredom. […]
DAVID MUIR: Vice President Harris, thank you. President Trump, on that point I want to get your response.
FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Well, I would like to respond.
DAVID MUIR: Let me just ask, though, why did you try to kill that bill and successfully so? That would have put thousands of additional agents and officers on the border.
FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: First let me respond as to the rallies. She said people start leaving. People don’t go to her rallies. There’s no reason to go. And the people that do go, she’s busing them in and paying them to be there. […] People don’t leave my rallies. We have the biggest rallies, the most incredible rallies in the history of politics. That’s because people want to take their country back. Our country is being lost. We’re a failing nation. […] What they have done to our country by allowing these millions and millions of people to come into our country. And look at what’s happening to the towns all over the United States. […] In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs. The people that came in. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating – they’re eating the pets of the people that live there. And this is what’s happening in our country. And it’s a shame. As far as rallies are concerned, as far — the reason they go is they like what I say. They want to bring our country back. They want to make America great again. […]
DAVID MUIR: I just want to clarify here, you bring up Springfield, Ohio. And ABC News did reach out to the city manager there. He told us there have been no credible reports of specific claims of pets being harmed, injured, or abused by individuals within the immigrant community —
FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Well, I’ve seen people on television.
DAVID MUIR: Let me just say here this —
FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: The people on television say my dog was taken and used for food. So maybe he said that and maybe that’s a good thing to say for a city manager.
DAVID MUIR: I’m not taking this from television. I’m taking it from the city manager.
FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: But the people on television say their dog was eaten by the people that went there.
DAVID MUIR: Again, the Springfield city manager says there’s no evidence of that.
FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: We’ll find out.
Harris-Trump presidential debate transcript
September 11, 2024 addendum
The moment Trump couldn’t resist bungling (Matt Flegenheimer, New York Times, Sept. 11, 2024) — A four-minute stretch, in which the former president wandered from crowd sizes to cat conspiracy theories, seemed to alter the evening’s trajectory.
An attack line from Vice President Kamala Harris distracted Donald J. Trump with his own vanity: critiquing the attendance at Mr. Trump’s rallies. (Photo credit: Graham Dickie / The New York Times)
October 20, 2024 update
Trump Self-Harm Persists
In an extended interview Oct. 18 on the Fox News Channel morning program “Fox and Friends,” Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump took a spiteful, gratuitous jab at former GOP rival Nikki Haley before faintly praising her support for his campaign
Co-host Brian Kilmeade: “There’s a segment of the Republican Party that likes Nikki Haley and they are reluctant to jump into your column. She wants to help. She said, ‘If he called me, I’m there.’ You guys used to be tight. In the last 18 days, will you call her and say, ‘Come out with me?’”
Donald Trump: “Yea, I’ll do what I have to do. Let me just tell you, Nikki Haley and I fought, and I beat her by 50, 60, 90 points. I beat her in her own state by numbers that nobody’s ever been beaten by. I beat Nikki badly. I beat everyone else, too – badly. I mean, frankly, I set records.”
Video (see 23:28–24:54)
Trump’s asinine “Fox and Friends” putdown of Nikki Haley followed on the the heels of his unnecessarily combative, sometimes vindictive, speech the previous night at the Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner.
Trump: “We have another former New York City mayor with us. Frankly, easily the worst in our history. And it’s not Michael [Bloomberg], that I can tell you. I’m surprised that Bill de Blasio was actually able to make it tonight, to be honest. He was a terrible mayor. I don’t give a shit if this is comedy or not. He was a terrible mayor. He did a horrible job. That’s not comedy, by the way. That’s fact.” (Full transcript)
Donald Trump
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 64–84
PEI = 64–84 (74 ±10); dysfunctionality adjusted = 45*
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower limit: | 22 | 14 | 22 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Upper limit: | 28 | 22 | 30 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Adjusted: | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 20] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 22] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 22] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 0] = 64 – 0 = 64
Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 26] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 30] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 28] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 – 3) = 0] = 84 – 0 = 84
* Dysfunctionality adjusted PEI = [Extraversion (scale 3) = (20 – 5) = 15] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = (22 – 7) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = (22 – 7) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 0] = 45 – 0 = 45
Chris Christie
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 25–47
PEI = 25–47 (36 ±11)
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower limit: | 14 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Upper limit: | 24 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 4] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 7] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 14] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 25 – 0 = 25
Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 11] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 12] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 24] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 47 – 0 = 47
Joe Biden (Prior to 2021)
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 21–33
PEI = 21–33 (27 ±6)
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower limit: | 3 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Upper limit: | 6 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 13] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 3] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 21 – 0 = 21
Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 19] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 8] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 6] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (4 – 4) = 0] = 33 – 0 = 33
Kamala Harris (October 2024 update)
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 18–31
PEI = 18–31 (24.5 ±6.5)
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower bound: | 7 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Upper bound: | 11 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Lower limit PEI = [Extraversion (scale 3) = 7] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (1 – 1) = 0] = 18 – 0 = 18
Upper limit PEI = [Extraversion (scale 3) = 13] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 7] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 – 3) = 0] = 31 – 0 = 31
Kamala Harris (Prior to 2021)
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 13–27
PEI = 13-27 (20 ±7)
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower bound: | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Upper bound: | 8 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Lower limit PEI = [Extraversion (scale 3) = 5] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 4] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (1 – 1) = 0] = 13 – 0 = 13
Upper limit PEI = [Extraversion (scale 3) = 13] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 6] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 8] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (4 – 4) = 0] = 27 – 0 = 27
Kamala Harris (2021–2024)
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 10–23
PEI = 10–23 (16.5 ±6.5)
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower bound: | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Upper bound: | 7 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Lower limit PEI = [Extraversion (scale 3) = 1] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 5] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (1 – 1) = 0] = 10 – 0 = 10
Upper limit PEI = [Extraversion (scale 3) = 11] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (4 – 4) = 0] = 23 – 0 = 23
Ron DeSantis
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 13–21
PEI = 13–21 (17 ±4)
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower limit: | 13 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| Upper limit: | 19 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 13 |
Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 0] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 9] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 13] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 9] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 – 3) = 0] = 22 – 9 = 13
Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 16] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 19] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 13] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (8 – 4) = 4] = 38 – 17 = 21
Joe Biden (2021–2024)
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 8–20
PEI = 8–20 (14 ±6)
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower limit: | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Upper limit: | 7 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 5] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 0] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 3] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (1 – 1) = 0] = 8 – 0 = 8
Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 9] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 – 3) = 0] = 20 – 0 = 20
Mike Pence
Presidential Electability Index
Range: 5–5
PEI = 5–5
| Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Lower limit: | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 0 |
| Upper limit: | 11 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 2 |
Lower limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 5] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (11 – 4) = 7] = 12 – 7 = 5
Upper limit PEI: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 4] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 9] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 2] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (21 – 4) = 17] = 24 – 19 = 5
Trump Crushing DeSantis and G.O.P. Rivals, Times/Siena Poll Finds
By Shane Goldmacher
The New York Times
July 31, 2023
Excerpt
Former President Donald J. Trump is dominating his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, leading his nearest challenger, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, by a landslide 37 percentage points nationally among the likely Republican primary electorate, according to the first New York Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 campaign.
Mr. Trump held decisive advantages across almost every demographic group and region and in every ideological wing of the party, the survey found, as Republican voters waved away concerns about his escalating legal jeopardy. He led by wide margins among men and women, younger and older voters, moderates and conservatives, those who went to college and those who didn’t, and in cities, suburbs and rural areas.
The poll shows that some of Mr. DeSantis’s central campaign arguments — that he is more electable than Mr. Trump, and that he would govern more effectively — have so far failed to break through. Even Republicans motivated by the type of issues that have fueled Mr. DeSantis’s rise, such as fighting “radical woke ideology,” favored the former president.
Overall, Mr. Trump led Mr. DeSantis 54 percent to 17 percent. No other candidate topped 3 percent support in the poll. […]
Full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/31/us/politics/2024-poll-nyt-siena-trump-republicans.html
Biden Shores Up Democratic Support, but Faces Tight Race Against Trump
President Biden and Donald Trump. (Photo credits: Desiree Rios for The New York Times; Saul Martinez for The New York Times)
By Reid J. Epstein, Ruth Igielnik, and Camille Baker
The New York Times
August 1, 2023
Excerpts
President Biden is heading into the 2024 presidential contest on firmer footing than a year ago, with his approval rating inching upward and once-doubtful Democrats falling into line behind his re-election bid, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. […]
Perhaps most worryingly for Democrats, the poll found Mr. Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald J. Trump, who held a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters even as he faces two criminal indictments and more potential charges on the horizon. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, according to the poll. […]
To borrow an old political cliché, the poll shows that Mr. Biden’s support among Democrats is a mile wide and an inch deep. About 30 percent of voters who said they planned to vote for Mr. Biden in November 2024 said they hoped Democrats would nominate someone else. […]
Full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/01/us/politics/biden-trump-poll.html
CNN Poll: Biden Faces Negative Job Ratings and Concerns about His Age as He Gears Up for 2024
CNN poll conducted by SSRS, August 25-31, 2023. (Graphic: DailyMail.com)
PredictIt: Who Will Win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
Who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? (PredictIt Daily Market, Sept. 22, 2023)
How the 2024 Race Is Shaping Up for Trump and Biden in 7 Key States
By Gregory Korte
Bloomberg News
October 19, 2023
Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.
By Shane Goldmacher
The New York Times
November 5, 2023
Biden Trails Trump in Each of Seven Battleground States
By Josh Wingrove and Gregory Korte
Bloomberg News
January 31, 2024
Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds
By Shane Goldmacher
The New York Times
March 2, 2023
Excerpts
President Biden is struggling to overcome doubts about his leadership inside his own party and broad dissatisfaction over the nation’s direction, leaving him trailing behind Donald J. Trump just as their general-election contest is about to begin, a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found.
With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters.
Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction. More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition. And the share of voters who strongly disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.
The poll offers an array of warning signs for the president about weaknesses within the Democratic coalition, including among women, Black and Latino voters. So far, it is Mr. Trump who has better unified his party, even amid an ongoing primary contest. …
Mr. Trump is winning 97 percent of those who say they voted for him four years ago, and virtually none of his past supporters said they are casting a ballot for Mr. Biden. In contrast, Mr. Biden is winning only 83 percent of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they now back Mr. Trump. …
Mr. Trump’s policies were generally viewed far more favorably by voters than Mr. Biden’s. A full 40 percent of voters said Mr. Trump’s policies had helped them personally, compared to only 18 percent who said the same of Mr. Biden’s. …
Overall, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were dead even among prized independent voters, drawing 42 percent each.
But over and over, the Times/Siena poll revealed how Mr. Trump has cut into more traditional Democratic constituencies while holding his ground among Republican groups. The gender gap, for instance, is no longer benefiting Democrats. Women, who strongly favored Mr. Biden four years ago, are now equally split, while men gave Mr. Trump a nine-point edge. The poll showed Mr. Trump edging out Mr. Biden among Latinos, and Mr. Biden’s share of the Black vote is shrinking, too. …
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 980 registered voters nationwide was conducted on cellular and landline telephones, using live interviewers, from Feb. 25 to 28, 2024. The margin of sampling error for the presidential ballot choice question is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points among registered voters.
Full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/us/politics/biden-trump-times-siena-poll.html
The Election is Set … The primaries are effectively over — and the general election begins
By Nate Cohn
The New York Times
March 6, 2023
Excerpts
On paper, Biden ought to be the favorite. He’s an incumbent president with a strong economy and an opponent facing trial for multiple alleged crimes.
Yet according to the polls, Trump begins the general election campaign in the lead. Over the last four months, he has led nearly every poll in Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, along with the states he carried in 2020 — enough to give him 283 electoral votes and the presidency. …
In the end, Biden might well prevail by capitalizing on issues like abortion and democracy. Historically, early polls are not especially predictive of a final outcome. Many voters aren’t yet paying close attention, and there will be every opportunity for the Biden campaign to refocus the electorate on more favorable issues once the general election campaign gets underway. …
Full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/briefing/super-tuesday-2024-election-haley-trump-biden.html
Many Democrats Are Worried Trump Will Beat Biden. This One Isn’t.
Simon Rosenberg has spent the past two years telling Democrats they need to calm down. His Biden-will-win prediction is his next big test.
By Adam Nagourney
The New York Times
April 3, 2023
Excerpts
Simon Rosenberg was right about the congressional elections of 2022. All the conventional wisdom — the polls, the punditry, the fretting by fellow Democrats — revolved around the expectation of a big red wave and a Democratic wipeout.
He disagreed. Democrats would surprise everyone, he said again and again: There would be no red wave. He was correct, of course, as he is quick to remind anyone listening.
These days, Mr. Rosenberg, 60, a Democratic strategist and consultant … is again pushing back against the polls and punditry and the Democratic doom and gloom. This time, he is predicting that President Biden will defeat Donald J. Trump in November. …
Full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/03/us/politics/simon-rosenberg-trump-biden.html
CNN Poll: Trump Maintains Lead over Biden in 2024 Matchup As Views on Their Presidencies Diverge
By Jennifer Agiesta
CNN Polling Director
April 28, 2024
Excerpts
Trump’s support in the poll among registered voters holds steady at 49% in a head-to-head matchup against Biden, the same as in CNN’s last national poll on the race in January, while Biden’s stands at 43%, not significantly different from January’s 45%.
Looking back, 55% of all Americans now say they see Trump’s presidency as a success, while 44% see it as a failure. …
Assessing Biden’s time in office so far, 61% say his presidency thus far has been a failure, while 39% say it’s been a success. …
Full report: https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-matchup/index.html
Professor Who Correctly Predicted 9 Presidential Elections Weighs In on Biden vs. Trump
April 29, 2024 — Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University who has accurately predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections, tells CNN’s Laura Coates why he thinks President Joe Biden has an advantage in 2024 despite polling that shows him trailing former president Donald Trump. (5:09)
PredictIt: Who Will Win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
Who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? (PredictIt Daily Market, July 8, 2024)
Harris or Trump? The Prophet of Presidential Elections Is Ready to Call the Race
By Nayeema Raza (writer and videographer) and Adam Westbrook (producer and editor), featuring Allan Lichtman
The New York Times
September 5, 2024
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are scheduled to debate on Sept. 10, but the 2024 presidential election is already in the bag — at least according to Allan Lichtman, the American University historian who’s been dubbed the Nostradamus of presidential election predictions for his near-perfect 40-year track record.
Mr. Lichtman was among the few to accurately predict Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 (earning him a Sharpie-scribbled note from the candidate lauding the “GOOD CALL!”). Immediately after the first 2024 presidential debate, between Mr. Trump and President Biden, Mr. Lichtman was also quick to warn that Mr. Biden dropping out of the race could be a “tragic mistake for Democrats,” leading him directly into an online battle with the forecaster Nate Silver. The confidence is rooted in Mr. Lichtman’s simple, history-driven model, which tunes out polls and pollsters and instead focuses on 13 true-or-false questions that he says hold the “keys” to the White House.
So can a model that looks all the way back to the horse and buggy days survive in an unprecedented election year marked by criminal proceedings, an assassination attempt and that Democratic switcheroo? Mr. Lichtman is confident that it can.
And what is his prediction in this unpredictable year? Well, for that, you’ll have to watch the video.
Who Will Win? Election Forecasters Think It’s Harris, But They’ve Been Wrong Before
Models looking at everything from polls to economic conditions show a narrow Harris win.
Video: Allan Lichtman, historian who predicted 9 out of last 10 elections, says Harris will win (11:13)
By Ryan Teague Beckwith
Newsletter Editor
MSNBC
October 2, 2024
Excerpts
It would be comforting to hear from an expert who can read the tea leaves and tell us who will win.
Demand is so high that multiple models are competing for dominance, and two of the biggest forecasters — historian Allan Lichtman and close poll reader Nate Silver — got into an online feud over the weekend over how to read the “13 keys” that Lichtman uses to make his predictions. (Lichtman says they predict a Kamala Harris win, but Silver argues they actually favor Donald Trump.) …
If you’re not sure about the 13 keys, you could look instead at the Misery Index, a crude measure developed by an adviser to President Lyndon Johnson that combines the unemployment rate and the inflation rate, which will tell you the numbers are looking good for Harris. Or you can check out the more sophisticated Time for Change model, which zeroes in on the popularity of the current president, the state of the economy and the number of terms the incumbent party has been in the White House. That also predicts a narrow Harris win.
Or maybe, like Silver, you favor polls. In that case, you can look at 538’s proprietary mix of polls, economic and demographic data to see that Harris is projected to win 57 out of 100 times (Silver is no longer with 538). If you’re willing to pay, you can see Silver’s own forecast, which is based on his new model. Or you can just look at the state-by-state polls yourself and obsessively play with the maps on 270 to Win while muttering about crucial Waukesha County.
Or perhaps you like the newfangled prediction markets, which ask bettors to put their money where their mouth is. PredictIt has a bet on a Harris win at 56 cents, with Trump as the underdog at 47 cents, while VirtualTout blends PredictIt data with some fancy math to come up with a forecast for a “strong Democratic victory.”
Full story: https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-harris-election-forecasts-predictions-rcna173277
Joe Biden » http://personality-politics.org/joe-biden-2024
Chris Christie » http://personality-politics.org/chris-christie-2024
Ron DeSantis » http://personality-politics.org/ron-desantis
Mike Pence » http://personality-politics.org/mike-pence-2024
Donald Trump » http://personality-politics.org/donald-trump-2024
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