Obama Campaign Tilting at Romney Windmill
Obama Plan: Destroy Romney (Ben Smith and Jonathan Martin, Politico, Aug. 9, 2011) — Barack Obama’s aides and advisers are preparing to center the president’s reelection campaign on a ferocious personal assault on Mitt Romney’s character and business background, a strategy grounded in the early-stage expectation that the former Massachusetts governor is the likely GOP nominee. The dramatic and unabashedly negative turn is the product of political reality. Obama remains personally popular, but pluralities in recent polling disapprove of his handling of his job, and Americans fear the country is on the wrong track. … And so the candidate who ran on “hope” in 2008 has little choice four years later but to run a slashing, personal campaign aimed at disqualifying his likeliest opponent. … Full report
Commentary
The Obama campaign would be misguided — even Quixotic — if it diverted inordinate resources to fending off Mitt Romney as Barack Obama’s likely opponent. Despite being the early front-runner in public opinion polls, Romney is unlikely to be the Republican presidential nominee — or, if he is, to be a viable challenger to Barack Obama.
The reasons are not just structural — for example, the GOP’s cannibalization by the Tea Party and lurch to the right following Obama’s election – but personal.
Specifically, Romney’s score of 6 on the Personal Electability Index (PEI), which has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996, ranks near the bottom among presidential candidates I’ve studied in the past four presidential election cycles — slightly lower than John Kerry’s PEI score of 9 (though considerably better than Al Gore’s -17).
Politico reports that Michele Bachmann is the declared candidate Democrats would most like to face. The Obama campaign should be careful what it wishes for; in personal electability terms, Bachmann’s PEI score, at 29, far exceeds Romney’s and is marginally higher — though statistically equivalent — to President Obama’s PEI score of 28 and nearly as high as George W. Bush’s PEI score of 31.
Following are the PEI scores of selected presidential candidates, rank-ordered from most electable to least electable in terms of personal qualities.
George W. Bush: PEI = 31
Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
Score: | 11 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Bush: [Extraversion (scale 3) = (16 – 1)] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2)] = 30
Michele Bachmann: PEI = 29
Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
Score: | 14 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Bachmann: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 10] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 14] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 – 3)] = 29
Barack Obama: PEI = 28
Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
Score: | 10 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Obama: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 9] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 11] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 10] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 1] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (5 – 4)] = 28
John Kerry: PEI = 9
Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
Score: | 6 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Kerry: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 0] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 7] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 6] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 3] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (5 – 4)] = 9
Mitt Romney: PEI = 6
Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
Score: | 7 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Romney: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 2] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (12 – 4)] = 6
Al Gore: PEI = –17
Scale: | 1A | 1B | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5A | 5B | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
Score: | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 0 |
Gore: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 1] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 3] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 8] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 11] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (22 – 4)] = –17
Related reports on this site
Click on image for larger view
Why Mitt Romney Won’t Be President — In Theory (Oct. 29, 2012)
Predicting the Winner of the 2012 Presidential Election (Aug. 2, 2011)
Why Mitt Romney Won’t Win: The Personal Electability Index (May 12, 2011)
Personality Matters: Mitt Romney Has Al Gore Problem (Jan. 16, 2012)
Mitt Romney’s Leadership Style (Sept. 3, 2012)
Mitt Romney Personality Profile (June 2, 2011)
Tim Pawlenty Personality Profile (June 16, 2011)
Michele Bachmann Personality Profile (June 13, 2011)
Barack Obama’s Personality Profile (Nov. 2, 2008)
12/9/2011 Update
Dem Campaign Means Two-Front War for Mitt Romney
Dem Campaign Means Two-Front War for Mitt Romney (Alexander Burns and Maggie Haberman, Politico, Dec. 8, 2011) — If Newt Gingrich ends up as the Republican presidential nominee, he may have the Democrats to thank for it. … Full report
Obama Campaign Turns Attention to Santorum (Sandhya Somashekhar, Washington Post, Feb. 17, 2012) — Rick Santorum’s surprising momentum at a critical stage in the presidential race has forced the Obama campaign to reassess its reelection strategy, which for months has revolved around the likelihood that Mitt Romney would end up as the president’s Republican rival. … Full report
Follow Aubrey Immelman