Why Mitt Romney Won’t Win

Why Mitt Romney Won’t Win

Aubrey Immelman

May 12, 2011

NBC News’ political director Chuck Todd writes that if the object of 2012 Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney’s May 12 health-care speech was “to put the health issue behind him, then the address was an ‘un-Mitt-igated’ failure.”

Image: Mitt Romney Delivers Health Care Reform Address at the University of Michigan

Research conducted at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics under the direction of Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., suggests that Massachusetts’ health law, enacted during Romney’s tenure as governor, may be the least of his problems as he vies for the Republican nomination in a crowded GOP field.

Romney lacks the personal charisma to sway non-base voters, as measured by the Personal Electability Index for presidential contenders, developed at the Minnesota-based political psychology research unit.

In short, Romney’s Personal Electability Index (PEI) score is 6, compared with 22 for Mike Huckabee and 28 for Barack Obama. PEI scores for other presidential candidates will be released over the summer.


Predicting the Outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election Before Super Tuesday

Personal Electability Index for Presidential Contenders

Using a formula (technically, a heuristic) developed the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics (USPP) for predicting presidential election outcomes and employing personality data collected in fall 2007 and early 2008 (using the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria), I made my prediction in February 2008 and posted it on the USPP website at http://uspp.csbsju.edu/Research/Election-Outcome_Prediction.html, more than nine months before the November election. Based purely on personality variables, I rank-ordered the candidates as follows prior to Super Tuesday:

Barack Obama: PEI = 28
John McCain: PEI = 26
Hillary Clinton: PEI = 23
Mike Huckabee: PEI = 22
Rudy Giuliani: PEI = 19
John Edwards: PEI = 13
Fred Thompson: PEI = 12
Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

Democrats
Hillary Clinton: PEI = 23

Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8 9 0
Score: 15 4 15 2 1 0 9 11 0 2 16 0

Clinton: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 2] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 2] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (11 – 4)] = 23

John Edwards: PEI = 13

Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8 9 0
Score: 3 4 4 6 4 1 2 3 1 0 0 0

Edwards: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 6] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 3] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 – 3)] = 13

Barack Obama: PEI = 28

Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8 9 0
Score: 10 6 11 9 7 1 2 5 4 1 0 4

Obama: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 9] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 11] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 10] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 1] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (5 – 4)] = 28

Summary for Democratic Contenders

Barack Obama: PEI = 28
Hillary Clinton: PEI = 23
John Edwards: PEI = 13

Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: PEI = 19

Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8 9 0
Score: 27 3 9 3 0 0 0 10 0 0 12 0

Giuliani: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 9] + [Dominance (scale 1) = (27 – 12)] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (10 – 4)] = 19

Mike Huckabee: PEI = 22

Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8 9 0
Score: 11 5 5 8 4 0 3 2 0 0 0 4

Huckabee: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 8] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 2] = 22

John McCain: PEI = 26

Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8 9 0
Score: 10 16 5 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

McCain: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 11] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 10] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 0] = 26

Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8 9 0
Score: 7 4 5 2 4 0 3 12 1 0 4 4

Romney: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 2] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (12 – 4)] = 6

Fred Thompson: PEI = 12

Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8 9 0
Score: 6 1 4 3 2 0 0 4 2 1 4 0

Thompson: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 6] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 1] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (4 – 4)] = 8

Summary for Republican Contenders

John McCain: PEI = 26
Mike Huckabee: PEI = 22
Rudy Giuliani: PEI = 19
Fred Thompson: PEI = 12
Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

2004 Comparison

George W. Bush: PEI = 31

Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8 9 0
Score: 11 5 4 16 4 0 0 2 0 0 0 4

Bush: [Extraversion (scale 3) = (16 – 1)] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2)] = 30

John Kerry: PEI = 9

Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8 9 0
Score: 6 6 7 0 3 0 3 5 2 3 0 0

Kerry: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 0] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 7] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 6] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 3] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (5 – 4)] = 9

2000 Comparison

George W. Bush: PEI = 31

Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8 9 0
Score: 11 5 4 16 4 0 0 2 0 0 0 4

Bush: [Extraversion (scale 3) = (16 – 1)] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2)] = 31

Al Gore: PEI = –17

Scale: 1A 1B 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8 9 0
Score: 8 2 3 1 4 1 3 22 5 11 12 0

Gore: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 1] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 3] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 8] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 11] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (22 – 4)] = –17


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