Why Mitt Romney Won’t Win

Aubrey Immelman

May 12, 2011

NBC News’ political director Chuck Todd writes that if the object of 2012 Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney’s May 12 health-care speech was “to put the health issue behind him, then the address was an ‘un-Mitt-igated’ failure.”

Research conducted at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics under the direction of Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., suggests that Massachusetts’ health law, enacted during Romney’s tenure as governor, may be the least of his problems as he vies for the Republican nomination in a crowded GOP field.

Romney lacks the personal charisma to sway non-base voters, as measured by the Personal Electability Index for presidential contenders, developed at the Minnesota-based political psychology research unit.

In short, Romney’s Personal Electability Index (PEI) score is 6, compared with 22 for Mike Huckabee and 28 for Barack Obama. PEI scores for other presidential candidates will be released over the summer.

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Predicting the Outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election Before Super Tuesday

Personal Electability Index for Presidential Contenders

Using a formula (technically, a heuristic) developed the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics (USPP) for predicting presidential election outcomes and employing personality data collected in fall 2007 and early 2008 (using the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria), I made my prediction in February 2008 and posted it on the USPP website at http://uspp.csbsju.edu/Research/Election-Outcome_Prediction.html, more than nine months before the November election. Based purely on personality variables, I rank-ordered the candidates as follows prior to Super Tuesday:

Barack Obama: PEI = 28
John McCain: PEI = 26
Hillary Clinton: PEI = 23
Mike Huckabee: PEI = 22
Rudy Giuliani: PEI = 19
John Edwards: PEI = 13
Fred Thompson: PEI = 12
Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

DemocratsHillary Clinton: PEI = 23

Scale:	1A	1B	2	3	4	5A	5B	6	7	8	9	0
Score:	15	4	15	2	1	0	9	11	0	2	16	0

Clinton: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 2] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 2] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (11 – 4)] = 23

John Edwards: PEI = 13

Scale:	1A	1B	2	3	4	5A	5B	6	7	8	9	0
Score:	3	4	4	6	4	1	2	3	1	0	0	0

Edwards: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 6] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 3] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 – 3)] = 13

Barack Obama: PEI = 28

Scale:	1A	1B	2	3	4	5A	5B	6	7	8	9	0
Score:	10	6	11	9	7	1	2	5	4	1	0	4

Obama: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 9] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 11] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 10] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 1] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (5 – 4)] = 28

Summary for Democratic Contenders

Barack Obama: PEI = 28
Hillary Clinton: PEI = 23
John Edwards: PEI = 13

Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: PEI = 19

Scale:	1A	1B	2	3	4	5A	5B	6	7	8	9	0
Score:	27	3	9	3	0	0	0	10	0	0	12	0

Giuliani: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 9] + [Dominance (scale 1) = (27 – 12)] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (10 – 4)] = 19

Mike Huckabee: PEI = 22

Scale:	1A	1B	2	3	4	5A	5B	6	7	8	9	0
Score:	11	5	5	8	4	0	3	2	0	0	0	4

Huckabee: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 8] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 2] = 22

John McCain: PEI = 26

Scale:	1A	1B	2	3	4	5A	5B	6	7	8	9	0
Score:	10	16	5	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

McCain: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 11] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 10] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 0] = 26

Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

Scale:	1A	1B	2	3	4	5A	5B	6	7	8	9	0
Score:	7	4	5	2	4	0	3	12	1	0	4	4

Romney: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 2] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (12 – 4)] = 6

Fred Thompson: PEI = 12

Scale:	1A	1B	2	3	4	5A	5B	6	7	8	9	0
Score:	6	1	4	3	2	0	0	4	2	1	4	0

Thompson: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 6] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 1] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (4 – 4)] = 8

Summary for Republican Contenders

John McCain: PEI = 26
Mike Huckabee: PEI = 22
Rudy Giuliani: PEI = 19
Fred Thompson: PEI = 12
Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

2004 Comparison

George W. Bush: PEI = 31

Scale:	1A	1B	2	3	4	5A	5B	6	7	8	9	0
Score:	11	5	4	16	4	0	0	2	0	0	0	4

Bush: [Extraversion (scale 3) = (16 – 1)] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2)] = 30

John Kerry: PEI = 9

Scale:	1A	1B	2	3	4	5A	5B	6	7	8	9	0
Score:	6	6	7	0	3	0	3	5	2	3	0	0

Kerry: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 0] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 7] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 6] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 3] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (5 – 4)] = 9

2000 Comparison

George W. Bush: PEI = 31

Scale:	1A	1B	2	3	4	5A	5B	6	7	8	9	0
Score:	11	5	4	16	4	0	0	2	0	0	0	4

Bush: [Extraversion (scale 3) = (16 – 1)] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2)] = 31

Al Gore: PEI = –17

Scale:	1A	1B	2	3	4	5A	5B	6	7	8	9	0
Score:	8	2	3	1	4	1	3	22	5	11	12	0

Gore: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 1] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 3] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 8] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 11] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (22 – 4)] = –17

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Click on image for larger view

A psychological profile of U.S. President Barack Obama, developed at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics during Obama’s 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns, reveals that the president is a highly confident, moderately accommodating and deliberative, somewhat reserved personality type best described as a confident conciliator.

Click on image for larger image

As shown in the pie chart above, Obama is primarily an Ambitious-confident personality, complemented by secondary Accommodating-cooperative, Conscientious-respectful, and Retiring-reserved features.

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Research assistants Sarah Moore and Angela Rodgers present their research on “The Personality Profile of President Barack Obama: Leadership Implications” at the 6th annual Minnesota Private Colleges Scholars at the Capitol event in the State Capitol rotunda, St. Paul, Minn., Feb. 19, 2009.

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Click on image for larger view

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Click on image for larger display

As shown in the pie chart above, Romney is primarily a Conscientious-dutiful personality, complemented by secondary Dominant-asserting, Ambitious-confident, and Accommodating-cooperative features and a minor Retiring-reserved tendency.

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Sidebar

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